Slowing Job Growth Seen in Coming Decade, Property and Financial Firms React to Queen’s Death, Impor
Slowing Job Growth Seen in Coming Decade
Expectations for slowing U.S. job creation in the next decade, combined with changes already caused by pandemic work-from-home trends, could have far-reaching impacts on corporate real estate decisions.
The Labor Department projected on Thursday that employment will grow 0.5% annually for the 2021-2031 period, slower than the 1% annual growth seen in 2011-2021. Total employment is expected to rise to 166.5 million by 2031 from 158.1 million jobs today.
Labor officials said in a statement that annual growth projections “do not reflect much of the employment recovery and reallocation that has already occurred” as a result of the pandemic and this year’s economic slowdown that analysts have said is veering toward recession if one hasn’t already arrived.
“However, the pandemic also has been a catalyst for some structural changes in demand for certain goods and services, which are expected to affect long-term demand for employment in a select group of industries and occupations,” the statement said.
Leisure and hospitality is projected to experience the fastest employment growth through 2031 at 1.3% annually, with 1.2% growth expected for healthcare and social assistance, mining and educational services. Manufacturing jobs are projected to decline 0.1% annually, with retail jobs dropping 0.2% annually.
The projections were released as the Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 6,000 from the prior week, to 222,000 for the week ended Sept. 3, as the four-week moving average declined 7,500 to 233,000. The unemployment rate remains historically low at 3.7%, with layoffs limited in most industries.
Property, Financial Firms React to Queen’s Death
Leaders of commercial real estate and other financial services firms joined mourners globally in paying tribute to Britain's Queen Elizabeth II, who died Thursday at 96.
“We join with others in the UK, the Commonwealth and around the world in expressing sadness at the death of Queen Elizabeth II and acknowledging her remarkable dedication to a life of service,” global brokerage Cushman & Wakefield said in a Twitter post. “Throughout the 70 years of her reign, a period of immense technological and societal change, she remained a constant and dignified presence who was devoted to her duty to the last.”
David McKay, CEO of Royal Bank of Canada, which owns Los Angeles-based City National Bank, said in a LinkedIn post, “Many of our colleagues, clients and communities will be deeply saddened to hear of the passing of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II. She was an iconic woman of remarkable importance to millions across generations, and the true embodiment of duty and service.”
Also on LinkedIn, Banke Odunaike, head of legal affairs in brokerage CBRE’s European and Asian division, said: “RIP Ma’am. Forever the nation’s dearly loved mother and greatest servant leader. The only consolation is in knowing Legends never die!”
Imports Drop at Major Ports
A cooling economy means imports at major U.S. container ports are expected to fall below year-ago levels for the rest of 2022, according to a report this week from the National Retail Federation and logistics consulting firm Hackett Associates.
“Consumers are still buying, but the cargo surge we saw during the past two years appears to be slowing down,” Jonathan Gold, the retail trade group’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in a statement.
Gold noted that cargo volumes remain “solidly above pre-pandemic levels,” but the rate of growth has slowed compared with levels seen last year. “The key now is dealing with ongoing supply chain issues around the globe and with labor negotiations at West Coast ports and freight railroads.”
U.S. ports tracked by the trade group and Hackett Associates handled 2.18 million 20-foot equivalent units — the standard measure for counting 20-foot shipping containers or their equivalent — in July, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 3.1% from June and down 0.4% from July 2021.
“The number of vessels waiting to dock on the West Coast has been reduced to near-normal,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said in the NRF statement, referring to major traffic clogs that occurred last year at ports worldwide as ships waited to load and unload cargo. “But with the switch of some cargo to the East Coast, congestion and pressure on the ports has drifted to the East Coast.”