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Tuesday, January 31, 2023Computer Chip Glut Could Curb Development, Norfolk Southern Rail Partners on Industrial Projects
Computer Chip Glut Could Curb Development Analysts are watching for possible impacts on large planned computer chip manufacturing facilities nationwide, as memory chip makers deal with falling consumer and client demand. Media outlets including Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal this week reported that some memory chip makers are already reducing jobs and facility investments as their clients reduce orders in the face of declining sales of personal computers and mobile devices. Citing analyst
Tuesday, January 31, 2023Suburban Chicago Office Tower Strengthens Comeback After Selling at Steep Discount
A logistics company has signed one of the largest office leases in the Chicago suburbs in the past year. The lease comes about a year after an investor scooped up the 25-story tower at a steep discount to the property’s previous sale price. AIT Worldwide Logistics leased 56,808 square feet for its future global headquarters space in the Two Pierce Place tower in Itasca, Illinois, west of O’Hare International Airport, according to a statement from Newmark. The brokerage represented property owner
Monday, January 30, 2023Consumers Send Mixed Signals, Mortgage Rates Drop, Construction Employment Rises
Consumers Send Mixed Signals Analysts are closely watching consumers for signs of whether the U.S. is indeed heading for a much-predicted recession in 2023, and January’s signals have been decidedly mixed. The latest Commerce Department numbers showed consumer spending fell 0.2% from the prior month in December, while January’s final consumer sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan showed confidence this month, posting a significant boost from December tallies. There is still caution created by
Monday, January 30, 2023After a Record-Breaking 2021, US Multifamily Performance Had a Disenchanting Year in 2022
After hitting record demand in 2021 with 700,000 multifamily units rented, the market witnessed a significant pullback in 2022. Nationally there were just 171,000 units of net absorption in 2022 or the difference between move-ins versus move-outs. However, demand looked even more lackluster than that as most of that leasing was front-loaded in the first two quarters of the year. The third quarter recorded just 27,000 units of demand and the fourth quarter barely stayed positive at 9,000 units leased.
Friday, January 27, 2023Discounter Aldi Opened the Most Grocery Stores Last Year, But Not the Most Space
Discounter Aldi led the industry in the most grocery store openings across the United States last year, but rivals H-E-B and Publix Super Markets bested the German chain in terms of the amount of new space occupied as part of the expansion of that type of property, according to a report by real estate firm JLL. Aldi, a small-format grocer with its U.S. headquarters in Batavia, Illinois, was the leader of new store debuts, with 49 coming online in 2022, according to the annual JLL U.S. Grocery Tracker
Friday, January 27, 2023Uncertainty Poses Real Estate Risks, GDP Growth Slows, Creditors Cut Off Bed Bath & Beyond
Uncertainty Poses Real Estate Risks High interest rates and other headwinds of late 2022 are expected to create challenges for North American real estate investors well through the first half of 2023, with analysts at S&P Global predicting pullbacks in acquisition and development as lenders reset yield expectations due to rising costs of capital. “The tide has turned for the real estate sector after a prolonged period of low interest rates,” S&P’s credit-rating analysts said in a Thursday report. “The
Thursday, January 26, 2023Biden Administration Takes Steps Toward National Renters Bill of Rights
he Biden administration set in motion plans to create a national renters bill of rights, tapping into a growing trend among states and cities around the country to address rental housing affordability. In what it calls a "blueprint for a renters bill of rights," the administration is seeking to ensure that tenants can organize, without harassment from landlords, to put more conditions on how evictions can proceed and to create leases that are clearer and fairer. In making the case, the White House
Thursday, January 26, 2023Freight Carrier Prospects Improve, Mortgage Applications Rise, Jobless Rates Drop in Most States
Freight Carrier Prospects Improve Freight transport companies see global supply chains improving in the early weeks of 2023, a potential sign of rising demand ahead for logistics-related real estate even as industry profits are expected to be limited in coming months. The latest quarterly surveys of cargo handlers by industry news site FreightWaves found generally positive sentiment regarding first-quarter 2023 supply chain prospects. But survey researcher Joe Antoshak noted on the site this week that
Wednesday, January 25, 20233M Joins Companies Laying Off Staff, Builders Oppose EPA Water Rules, Office Attendance Rises
3M Joins Companies Laying Off Staff Industrial giant 3M, best known for products including Scotch tape and Post-it Notes, plans to lay off 2,500 workers, the latest in a string of large job cuts over the past few weeks primarily involving big tech companies like Microsoft and Google. The planned cuts to Saint Paul, Minnesota-based 3M’s global manufacturing workforce come amid expectations for what CEO Mike Roman described in a quarterly earnings report as “macroeconomic challenges to persist in 2023.” A
Wednesday, January 25, 2023Hotel Executives Declare 2023 Year of Acceleration
LOS ANGELES — Unlike in years past when optimism among hotel executives was conservative, the first day of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit proved that leaders are all-out bullish on the health of the industry. Hoteliers haven't been shy about their positive expectations for a high volume of deals, growth in revenues despite an economic recession and overall strength of travel demand. In terms of price tags on hotels that could trade in 2023, past transactions indicate distressed pricing still
Tuesday, January 24, 2023Indicators Point to Deepening Slowdown, Spotify Adds to Tech Layoffs, CEO Departures Decline
Indicators Point to Further Slowdown The U.S. slipped closer to a recession or some type of pullback in the final month of 2022 based on manufacturing, housing construction and other data compiled by a prominent economic research organization. The Conference Board said Monday its Leading Economic Index, a composite of several metrics, declined 1% in December following a 1.1% pullback in November. The index contracted 4.2% in the second half of 2022, much steeper than the 1.9% decline in the first
Tuesday, January 24, 2023As More Employees Return to the Office, Companies Increase Lease Size Across Chicago
There is a truism in commercial real estate that states nothing kills a deal like uncertainty. When times are bad, companies downsize and look to sell or sublease their spaces. When times are good, they expand and acquire more space. Yet when a Black Swan event such as a global pandemic paralyzes the market with indecision, businesses sign short-term leases or opt to “kick the can” and postpone long-term real estate decisions for a later time. Or, they do nothing, and allow their leases to expire, leaving
Monday, January 23, 2023These Two Days Are Favorites for Workers Returning to the Office
Visitor Traffic Shows Middle of the Week Preferred as Hybrid Work Remains Entrenched At a time when some major U.S. cities have yet to return to half their pre-pandemic office attendance, Tuesday is the new Monday as far as workers are concerned. Traffic analytics firm Placer.ai found that day leads all others in the work week for those coming back to the office some of the time. Tuesday accounted for 24.3% of all U.S. office visits in the fourth quarter of 2022. It was followed by Wednesday at 23%, then
Monday, January 23, 2023Tech Job Cuts Put Spotlight on Perks, Truck Trailer Sales Signal Supply Chain Recovery, Home Sales D
Tech Job Losses Draw Spotlight to Perks The growing list of major technology companies announcing planned job cuts, joined by Google parent Alphabet’s move to lay off 12,000, has some in the industry wondering what will become of the high-end perks and services once offered as these companies looked to recruit talented workers. Office space demand has already taken a hit as some firms like Facebook parent Meta have exited leases to reduce overhead as economic conditions cut into profit, dealing a blow to
Friday, January 20, 2023Industrial Construction Costs Ease, Housing Starts Fall, Jobless Claims Drop
Industrial Construction Costs Ease Pricing pressures are easing, but industrial development projects remain historically expensive largely because of inflated costs for materials, brokerage Cushman & Wakefield reported. Supply bottlenecks of the early pandemic months have been less pronounced over the past year, though high demand for ecommerce and other logistics space across North America are keeping projects pricey and challenging developers to complete them on schedule. “While industrial construction
Friday, January 20, 2023Rentals to Account for Growing Share of Single-Family Housing Starts
Institutional Investors Attracted to Rent Growth of Build-To-Rent Sector In keeping with trends from past recessions, the share of single-family rental starts will increase in 2023 as mortgage rates reach multi-decade highs. During most recessions since 1980, the share of single-family starts built to rent has increased relative to other types of single-family residences. Developers delivering into a weak home-buying market will seek alternatives for their product, as purchase demand
Thursday, January 19, 2023Homebuilder Confidence Rises, Court Clears Way for Albertsons Dividend, Office Attendance Heads Back
Homebuilder Confidence Rises Homebuilder sentiment rose this month for the first time in a year, even as the industry grapples with historically high construction costs and curbed consumer demand. The National Association of Home Builders, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group, reported Wednesday that its January sentiment index, compiled with Wells Fargo researchers based on national surveys, registered at 35, up four points from December’s number. While any number below 50 indicates most builders view
Thursday, January 19, 2023US Holiday Retail Sales Growth Falls Short of Projections
The holiday shopping season didn't turn out to be quite as jolly and robust as some forecasters predicted. But in a positive sign for retailers and their landlords, two of nine store categories still registered gains and mall foot traffic rose, according to the National Retail Federation and analytics firm Placer.ai. The trade group reported on Wednesday that retail sales during November and December rose just 5.3% over 2021 to $936.3 billion, falling shy of its projections amid continuing inflation and
Wednesday, January 18, 2023These CEOs Stuck To Stores in Digital Era. They Say the Strategy Pays Unexpected Dividends.
New to the job, Petco’s CEO recalls he was advised to close the pet supplier’s stores at a time when predictions were common about the impending death of brick-and-mortar-retail. Ron Coughlin was making the transition from serving as an executive at computer maker HP to the head of San Diego-based Petco. “I was running the PC division at HP,” Coughlin said during a keynote session at the National Retail Federation’s conference in New York that ran Sunday through Tuesday. “Then I had come into Petco, and
Wednesday, January 18, 2023Commercial Loan Delinquencies Rise, China’s Growth in Population and GDP Drop
Commercial Loan Delinquencies Rise Delinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial and multifamily properties rose slightly from the prior quarter in the final quarter of 2022, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Tuesday. “Delinquency rates increased by small amounts for most property types even while the overall rate of delinquency remains low,” Jamie Woodwell, the trade group’s head of commercial real estate research, said in a statement. The bankers group said 98% of outstanding loan
Tuesday, January 17, 2023Fitness Chains Lead Retail Foot Traffic Gains, Consumer Confidence Improves, Seasonal Retail Hiring
Fitness Chains Lead Retail Traffic Gains Consumers looking to shape up and leave the pandemic behind them made fitness chains among the top gainers for retail foot traffic during the past year, according to a new report from analytics firm Placer.ai. Crunch Fitness, Planet Fitness and their multiple rivals collectively boosted their fourth-quarter customer visits nearly 17% from a year earlier when some pandemic restrictions were still in place and almost 12% from the pre-pandemic fourth quarter of 2019.
Tuesday, January 17, 2023The Office Picture Is Clearing Up, but Major Challenges Lie Ahead
After the shock of pandemic-induced remote work, clarity is returning to the U.S. office sector, which is facing several major challenges in adjusting to new conditions. Nearly three years after initial closings sent millions of office workers home, a remote-work equilibrium has emerged in the form of the hybrid workplace model. Some form of hybrid—under which employees split their time between remote and in-office locations—has become the predominant work arrangement at many organizations, especially in
Monday, January 16, 2023Narrowing of Bid-Ask Spread To Result in Record Hotel Sales, Plus Six Other Predictions for 2023
After being decimated by the plunge in business and group travel in 2020 and 2021, the hospitality industry has demonstrated a strong recovery and record profitability as it recovers from the pandemic. While there are significant capital market challenges in the backdrop of a slowing macroeconomic environment, hotels are expected to continue to offer attractive risk-adjusted returns for investors in the year ahead. Here are some additional predictions for hospitality real estate in 2023: 1. Short-term
Friday, January 13, 2023Inflation Rate Drops, Subway Explores Possible Sale, Starbucks Tightens Office Return Policy
Inflation Rate Drops Annual consumer price inflation dropped for the sixth consecutive month in December, to 6.5%, leaving markets and analysts to ponder the Federal Reserve’s next move as it looks to tame inflation through interest rate hikes. The Labor Department said consumer prices declined 0.1% on a monthly basis, and the annual inflation rate for all items was down from November’s 7.1%. Gasoline prices fell slightly from the prior month in December, but other utility, food and shelter costs remained
Friday, January 13, 2023Don’t Be Fooled — The Labor Market Is Softening
Economists rely on many data points for insight into how the economy is faring, as each on its own can at times offer confusing signals, especially at turning points. For example, for many months, most data have pointed to a labor market that remains remarkably robust. At the same time, however, the overall economy is cooling as higher interest rates have weighed on equity and bond prices, inflation-adjusted consumer spending has flatlined, and construction and manufacturing activity is slowing. How can
Thursday, January 12, 2023Construction Work Backlog the Longest Since 2019, but Higher Interest Rates Could Slow New Projects
The work backlog at construction and engineering firms in the United States was the longest in about 3 1/2 years in December, a sign that contractors could remain in demand even in the event of a recession in 2023. The national construction backlog remained at 9.2 months in December, the same level as the previous month and one month higher than in December 2021, according to Washington, D.C.-based trade group Associated Builders and Contractors. It’s the longest average wait time for the start of
Thursday, January 12, 2023Smaller Offices Will Dominate Leasing
Office demand growth remains well below its pre-pandemic pace, and we expect the trend toward smaller leases will continue in 2023. Economic uncertainty is impacting decisions around space needs, and leasing activity has been increasingly dominated by smaller space commitments since the pandemic. About 60% of leases signed in 2022 were for less than 15,000 square feet, a share that has increased from 49% prior to the pandemic. On the other end of the size spectrum, the share of commitments in large
Wednesday, January 11, 2023Vacancy Gap Between Newer and Older Offices Will Widen
Older Buildings Lacking Modern Amenities and Safety Features Face Obsolescence Risk The newest and highest-quality office properties are expected to perform the best in 2023 amid slower growth in demand, increasing remote and hybrid work and a weakening economy. As businesses rethink their space needs and possibly shrink their footprints, they're more likely to consolidate into their most strategic locations, which tend to be high-quality and centrally located buildings. Indeed, newer stabilized
Wednesday, January 11, 2023Positive US Employment Report Flashes Higher Risk of Recession
The federal government’s jobs report on Friday was quite a bit stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls expanding by 223,000 and the unemployment rate ticking down to 3.5%. Employment growth is perhaps the single-most important macroeconomic force guarding against recession, so it was definitely surprising when my recession-forecasting model showed an increase in the probability of a recession sometime in the next 12 months. Among the industries reporting the strongest employment growth were
Tuesday, January 10, 2023US Industrial Development Starts Plunge by 40% in Fourth Quarter
Inflation and the higher interest rates accompanying it have finally begun to curtail the largest commercial real estate construction boom by square footage recorded for any property type in the U.S. since the 1980s. About 134 million square feet of U.S. industrial property development began construction during the final three months of 2022. This marked a steep drop of almost 40% from the quarterly tally averaged during the preceding 12 months, and was the lowest quarterly construction-starts total
Tuesday, January 10, 2023Disney Orders Workers Back to Offices, Restaurants Delay Expansion, Consumer Inflation Expectations
Disney Orders Workers Back to Offices Media and theme park giant Disney has joined prominent technology and finance companies calling on employees to come back to offices for at least part of the week as concerns about the pandemic subside. But it also comes as planned layoffs and hiring freezes are on the rise, with Goldman Sachs joining the list with reported plans to cut 3,200 workers this week. Disney CEO Bob Iger told workers who are currently on hybrid home-office schedules that they must return to
Monday, January 09, 2023Willingness to Take Risks Is Part of a Winning Strategy, Hotel Revenue Managers Say
An uneven recovery across the U.S. in 2022 has prompted hotel revenue strategists to take risks and tap into their ability to be resilient, resourceful and creative in order to make better business decisions. Scott Neslage, director of lodging operations at Indigo Road Hospitality, which owns, manages and operates restaurants and boutique hotels, said while it wasn't much of a surprise to his team, a challenge in 2022 was that budgets came with more significant uncertainty than the historical
Monday, January 09, 2023Apartment Unit Sizes Will Stay Below Pre-Pandemic Averages
Recent demographic trends led to stronger performance by apartments in Sun Belt markets as renters move out of dense cities in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest into the South and West with larger living spaces and lower rents. Developers have followed the demand, and new supply from the first quarter of 2020 through the third quarter of 2022 averaged 70,272 net new units in southern and western markets per quarter, a 30% increase from the quarterly average of 54,040 between 2015 and 2019. However, supply
Friday, January 06, 2023Chicago Takes Center Stage in Loan Maturities, Single-Family Rent Growth Slows
Chicago Takes Center Stage in Loan Maturities: The U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities market closed out 2022 with deteriorating performance, according to an analysis by Kroll Bond Rating Agency. The trend, if it continues, could be particularly ominous for Chicago’s office market, where large loans are set to mature this year. The loan payment delinquency rate among KBRA-rated CMBS deals rose 0.08% in December to 2.97%, up from 2.89% in November. The rate has now increased for three consecutive
Friday, January 06, 2023Private Payrolls Climb, Jobless Claims Decline, US Trade Deficit Drops
Payroll Employment Climbs Private-sector employment rose by 235,000 jobs from the prior month in December as annual pay climbed on average by 7.3% from year-earlier levels, according to the latest monthly tracking by payroll services provider ADP and Stanford University’s Digital Economy Lab. “The labor market is strong but fragmented, with hiring varying sharply by industry and establishment size,” ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said in a statement Thursday. “Business segments that hired
Thursday, January 05, 2023Job Openings Hold Steady, Office Attendance Sees Holiday Drop, Mortgage Applications Hit 26-Year Low
Job Openings Hold Steady Despite a wave of layoffs and corporate space cutbacks hitting industries including technology and media, the nation overall has job openings still going unfilled, according to the latest Labor Department numbers. Openings at the end of November were little changed from the prior month and totaled 10.5 million, the government reported Wednesday. November’s total of 6.1 million hires and 5.9 million separations, including layoffs and resignations, were also essentially unchanged
Thursday, January 05, 2023Hoteliers Can Look Past Storm Clouds to Sunny Days Ahead
STR Vice President of Analytics Isaac Collazo knows "there are some storm clouds on the horizon" heading into 2023, but he expects most news to be good news for the hotel industry even as the broader economy heads to a recession. "It's just going to be different," he said. "It's just going to be a little slower growth than what we've seen over the last 12 to 18 months, but again, it's growth." Jan Freitag, CoStar's national director of hospitality, echoed that sentiment, saying that while he doesn't
Wednesday, January 04, 2023Manufacturing Sharply Declines, Construction Spending Up, Small Business Wage Growth Slows
Manufacturing Conditions Decline Demand indicators for manufacturing ended 2022 with their sharpest monthly decline since the early months of the pandemic, with analysts at S&P Global reporting significant December drops in production and new orders. The financial data firm’s monthly national survey of purchasing managers showed demand among domestic and foreign customers contracting at rates not seen since May 2020. That created a slowdown in manufacturing-related hiring as pressure on capacity waned and
Wednesday, January 04, 2023As More People Return to the Office, Here’s How the 2023 Workplace May Get a New Look
As employers shift away from remote work and bring employees back to the office, the next phase of pandemic-related workplace design is expected to kick into gear as employers reimagine how and where they bring employees back. A new formula for space is emerging as companies shrink their total square footage, swap private desks for collaboration areas and incorporate perks aimed at enticing employees back to physical spaces. And while a crowd of companies was quick to try to offload as much unused office
Tuesday, January 03, 2023Mortgage Rates Rise, Markets End Year on Dour Note
Mortgage Rates Rise Homebuyers hoping long-term mortgage rates would keep falling didn’t catch a break in the final week of the year. The 30-year fixed rate bounced up after declining through November, rising to 6.42% from 6.27% from the previous week, according to Freddie Mac’s latest mortgage market survey. A year ago, the rate was at 3.11%. The 15-year fixed rate mortgage edged lower to 5.68%, a .01 percentage point drop. That rate was 2.33% a year ago. “The housing market remains in the doldrums
Tuesday, January 03, 2023Jobless Claims Edge Higher, GDP Growth Projected, Rent Inflation Declines
Unemployment Claims Edge Higher New jobless claims ticked up in the week before Christmas but remain historically low, while the number of those still using unemployment insurance rose to the highest since February. The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial claims increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 in the week ending Dec. 24. That's 3,250 higher than the comparable week last year. The four-week moving average decreased 250 to 221,250. Initial claims have yet to see a significant
